I also want to mention a point brought up by my blog colleague, Michelle, who has shown that much of California has had near-normal precipitation over the past 30 days, and there even are some coastal areas that have been near-normal. When we also factor in that El Nino's influence on California precipitation is strongest from January - March, we're reminded that it's way too early to judge whether this winter is unusually dry for a strong El Nino. I'm sure Michelle will have a lot more to say on the topic toward the end of the month.