I have a farm in the highlands of Central Mexico and the impacts of ENSO on our drought-prone region are obviously very important, but also extremely unclear. I have been studying the historic charts for ENSO and it just isn't obvious how our rainfall is impacted. Right now El Niño is forecast to bring us drought. But it seems to me - and I am not at all a scientist - there are too many other factors to make a clear prognosis. This makes life very difficult to plan our farms. In our region, campesino farmers rely on the monsoon rains that start in May-June and run through October more or less. Right now, in June, we are having a drought. Hotter and drier, the monsoon rains are not in the forecast at all. We should be planting now but the ground is totally dry. But we are in a Neutral phase now, which in the past has not been a problem. So obviously there are other factors at play. I just wonder, with the climate being so complex, and climate change playing havoc with the whole system, if it is possible at all to really make helpful forecasts that allow farmers to prepare for their season.