RE: Region 1.22
There was a strong westerly wind event in the east-central tropical Pacific in January, and we have been on the lookout to see if its downwelling Kelvin wave would raise the Nino3.4, then Nino3, and then Nino1+2 readings. It did serve to stop, temporarily, the drop in Nino3.4, but does not appear to be exerting more than a small influence on the behavior of Nino3 and Nino1+2, at least to date. There is still some chance for an upward move in Nino1+2 in the coming few weeks, but since Nino1+2 has already dropped by a considerable amount, even some rise, or pause in the decrease, will not translate to implications for important rainfall activity along the South American coast -- at least not in the coming few weeks. There is still a moderate amount of subsurface heat in the eastern tropical Pacific, so Nino1+2 would not be expected to return all the way to average in the next month or two. But it does now appear less likely that Nino1+2 will be at very high levels during late February and March.