RE: Central Pacific El Nino this year?
Yes, so far the largest SST anomalies are in the central Pacific, near the dateline (and represented approximately by the Nino4 SST anomaly), rather than in the more typical location in the east-central part of the basin (represented more by the Nino3.4 or even Nino3 SST anomaly). Nino4 has had larger anomaies than Nino3.4 for many months already, and this feature becomes even more pronounced when we consider that the year-to-year variability in Nino4 is smaller than that in Nino3.4--that is, an anomaly of, say, +0.9C is less commonly observed in Nino4 than in Nino3.4 or Nino3 for any given season. However, although the event is shaping up to be a central Pacific event so far, it may not necessarily remain that way over the coming months. Most dynamical models predict a more typical SST anomaly pattern to emerge as the event matures from early northern fall to winter 2015-16. Of course they may be wrong, especially since today's models' ability to forecast El Nino type (e.g. Modoki vs. canonical El Nino) is quite limited.