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Correlations (pattern match "scores") between winter (Dec-Feb) precipitation and the geographic pattern we'd expect during El Niño (red diamonds) and La Niña (blue diamonds) based on composites of past events. The overall linear pattern is similar to the pattern shown in the figure above: the match between observations and the expected pattern get better (closer to 1, a perfect match) the stronger the La Niña or El Niño. NOAA Climate.gov figure, based on analysis by Nat Johnson.